Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.372924 0.425886 0.483393 0.550433 0.626406 0.709796 0.808234
2025-08-24 0.293968 0.363641 0.445182 0.547516 0.672382 0.819661 1.006451
2025-08-31 0.234949 0.312717 0.410182 0.540988 0.711633 0.926371 1.216805
2025-09-07 0.198382 0.282693 0.395298 0.556099 0.779194 1.077094 1.504365
2025-09-14 0.159139 0.242019 0.359615 0.537710 0.799568 1.169254 1.729415
2025-09-21 0.132086 0.213564 0.335922 0.531701 0.835549 1.287248 2.007312
2025-09-28 0.109821 0.188196 0.312392 0.521696 0.863465 1.396705 2.288003
2025-10-05 0.097504 0.176353 0.307670 0.539827 0.937032 1.584824 2.715471
2025-10-12 0.084196 0.160406 0.293537 0.539942 0.980740 1.730550 3.094102
2025-10-19 0.074222 0.148541 0.284367 0.546866 1.036538 1.903003 3.540315
2025-10-26 0.066811 0.140100 0.279890 0.561289 1.107306 2.109876 4.073594
2025-11-02 0.056824 0.124812 0.260092 0.543608 1.115491 2.204404 4.413582
2025-11-09 0.047084 0.108542 0.236332 0.515593 1.101966 2.261124 4.699542
2025-11-16 0.040633 0.098110 0.222758 0.506226 1.124576 2.391140 5.148288
2025-11-23 0.035068 0.088597 0.209548 0.495492 1.142776 2.514990 5.602581
2025-11-30 0.031814 0.083881 0.206153 0.505929 1.208419 2.746183 6.314411
2025-12-07 0.027127 0.074716 0.190967 0.486750 1.204713 2.828292 6.714874
2025-12-14 0.023821 0.068410 0.181504 0.479587 1.227710 2.972376 7.273591
2025-12-21 0.020825 0.062310 0.171480 0.469325 1.241607 3.097378 7.805233
2025-12-28 0.019405 0.060286 0.171546 0.484798 1.321463 3.387350 8.765815
2026-01-04 0.017465 0.056365 0.165901 0.484254 1.360303 3.583355 9.523434
2026-01-11 0.015990 0.053531 0.162754 0.490015 1.416658 3.830240 10.441224
2026-01-18 0.014903 0.051677 0.162076 0.502638 1.493587 4.139590 11.560035